[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141717 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008

CORRECTED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT
OF 2.42 INCHES FOR BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 4N24W 4N36W TO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...WITHIN
A 15 NM RADIUS OF 4N33W AND 5N36W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 45W
AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N10W 6N30W 11N40W 11N50W 11N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER NEAR 31N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS SOUTH OF 26N. A 1037 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELAWARE IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
EASTERN GULF...AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE GULF OF
MEXICO 31N85W-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE AND LEAVES UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...IMPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS EVERYWHERE. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO THE
PANAMA COAST ALONG 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 24N68W ACROSS THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA...
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
THE LINE FROM 19N74W TO 14N78W...CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
65W/66W FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 15N. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA ALONG 24N65W BEYOND
32N63W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT ALREADY
HAS BEEN OCCUPIED BY THE 60W FEATURE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W TO 24N68W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING FROM 24N68W
ACROSS THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA...TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
56W AND 70W. BERMUDA REPORTED A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF
2.42 INCHES ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC. THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO
THE WEST OF BERMUDA AT 13/1200 UTC AND AT 13/1800 UTC...FINALLY
MOVING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA BY 14/0000 UTC. PERSISTENT MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A 13N41W TO 30N50W TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA IN BETWEEN AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THE 60W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N54W TO
A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N54W TO 24N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N
BETWEEN 42W AND 45W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W...AND
FROM 25N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W...AND NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
13N59W 14N54W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...THROUGH 20N30W...BEYOND 32N40W.

$$
MT





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