[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N35W 6N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 55W S OF 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX CYCLONE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IS ALONG THE MID-ATLC
COAST OF THE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW CENTER OVER WRN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE W
ATLC AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA AND
INTO THE S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N89W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH THE BASE DIPPING TO NEAR 24N AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT. AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 95W DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WARMER GULF WATERS. THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS IN SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO IS
ACROSS THE WRN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
W CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N79W INTO ERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND RESIDE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE BASIN REMAINS ON THE SW
SIDE OF A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED W OF THE
AZORES. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE USHERED IN ON MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDS OF BROKEN SHALLOW
SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-80W. THE UPPER LEVELS HOWEVER
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE LOCATED OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER ERN PANAMA IN THE VICINITY OF A 1008 MB LOW
LOCATED NEAR 8N75W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THIS
ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW COMPLEX IS SPINNING OVER THE MID-ATLC
SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N76W THEN CONTINUES S ACROSS
ABACO AND ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N OVER THE W ATLC. THE SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EXTENDS SW TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
W OF 76W. SUBSIDENCE AROUND A STRONG 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED W OF THE AZORES IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N53W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 44W-55W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
FARTHER TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 35W-44W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO GENERATING A WIDE
SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN
PARTICULARLY FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS...A MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT WITH A SMALL
CORE OF 70-90KT JET-STREAM WINDS CROSSING N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 20N E OF 35W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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