[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 6N45W 5N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 20W-24W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO BEYOND BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE W GULF.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN
71W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
11N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N43W TO 26N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS ALONG 15N52W
8N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
50W-54W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N E OF 50W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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