[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W 3N45W AND INTO
EXTREME NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF DUE TO RIDGING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
OVER N GEORGIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE
W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
TEXAS AND MEXICO W OF 98W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SW RETURN FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER
THE FAR NW GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE SEA. A 1010 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN N OF TRINIDAD PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM E OF BERMUDA
TO W CUBA ALONG 32N62W 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N40W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER S NEAR
19N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 13N41W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-80W. A 90 KT UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 30N57W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N48W TO HISPANIOLA WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA







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