[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W AND INTO EXTREME NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N92W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED FROM 23N91W INTO A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
20N96W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GULF W OF 86W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-98W. FAIR SKIES ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NE VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W
WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CENTERED ABOVE THE SE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SHEARING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STEMS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 10N66W. CLUSTERS
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE S OF 16N. STRONGER ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 81W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND EXTENDS SW
THROUGH NASSAU BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG 31N64W...ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO
21N76W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM E OF BOTH OF THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE W ATLC.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLC
OCEAN WEST OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N49W
25N55W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 36W N OF 12N. A SET OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURES ARE ACROSS THE E ATLC. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S AND W TO 23N50W 24N56W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 53W-57W. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N41W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 23N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 28W-39W. THE THIRD LOW IS A WEAK
1018 MB CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 26N37W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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