[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N25W 5N40W 5N50W TO FRENCH
GUIANA AND SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO A 1018 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N96W. A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INTO
MEXICO ALONG 19N98W 24N104W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF
W...MEXICO...AND S TEXAS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 92W-100W. IN
ADDITION...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 26N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SOUTHERN
GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS FROM 26N80W TO 20N96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE SEA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N81W 9N82W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N70W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N71W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA AT
29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020
HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N47W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW
TO 24N47W 21N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
40W-46W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N15W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 16N BETWEEN
30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N25W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 20N-25N. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N25W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W TO 7N60W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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