[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 4N30W 5N49W TO FRENCH GUIANA
AND SURINAME NEAR 5N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 17W...SOUTH OF 8N
BETWEEN 27W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY STRTECHED OUT
AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA TO
SOUTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN PART
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 27N90W...TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 24N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W...TO 23N102W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N102W TO 29N107W IN
MEXICO...CONTINUING NORTHWARD BEYOND THE FAR WEST TEXAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 30N84W
26N90W 23N95W 19N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO 18N87W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT CURVES THROUGH AND BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OF THE AREA NEAR 10N80W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 15N79W. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMNANT SHOWERS ARE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
14N83W 13N80W 10N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W TO 25N67W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N67W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W. A PERSISTENT CENTRATL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
IS THE MAIN FEATURE. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N47W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
27N43W...TO 21N46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH RE-APPEARS ALONG
TO 8N59W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
55W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N50W TO 22N55W AND 13N56W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 7N21W 20N23W BEYOND 32N25W.

$$
MT





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