[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Aug 31 23:44:09 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KLCH 010442
HLSLCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST...
.AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 954 MB...OR 28.17 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
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ALLEN-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
ALLEN...JEFFERSON DAVIS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PREPARE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...60 TO 70 MPH...AND GUSTS TO MINIMAL HURRICANE
FORCE...75 TO 80 MPH.
EVACUATION INFORMATION.
ALLEN.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
JEFFERSON DAVIS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE JENNINGS AND KINDER AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...AND THE OBERLIN AND OAKDALE AREAS AROUND NOON. STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY MID MONDAY EVENING.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES
OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF
FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN.
ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. UP TO
ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
JENNINGS.
TROPICAL STORM...90 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...30 PERCENT.
KINDER.
TROPICAL STORM...88 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...25 PERCENT.
OAKDALE.
TROPICAL STORM...89 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...24 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL
OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
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AVOYELLES-RAPIDES-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PREPARE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...55 TO 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY
MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE MARKSVILLE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING
MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO ALEXANDRIA AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
AROUND 10 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.
MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
ALEXANDRIA.
TROPICAL STORM...86 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...16 PERCENT.
MARKSVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...90 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...20 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ032-033-043>045-055-010830-
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ACADIA-EVANGELINE-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. LANDRY-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
ACADIA...EVANGELINE...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 120 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH. THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY...TO
FRANKLIN...TO NEW IBERIA...TO LAFAYETTE...AND TO EUNICE. ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE STORM MOVES INLAND...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO REMAIN A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES LAFAYETTE.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL
MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.
ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.
NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED
TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.
UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED.
MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT. LIVESTOCK LEFT
OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW LIVESTOCK DEATHS
ARE LIKELY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH
BEFORE DAWN MONDAY MORNING...REACH THE LAFAYETTE AREA BY EARLY
MORNING...AND REACH THE CROWLEY...VILLE PLATTE...AND OPELOUSAS
AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH
LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH AROUND NOON...REACH THE LAFAYETTE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE CROWLEY...VILLE PLATTE...AND OPELOUSAS
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
ST. MARTINVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...97 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...48 PERCENT.
LAFAYETTE.
TROPICAL STORM...96 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...43 PERCENT.
OPELOUSAS.
TROPICAL STORM...95 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...37 PERCENT.
VILLE PLATTE.
TROPICAL STORM...93 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...30 PERCENT.
CROWLEY.
TROPICAL STORM...93 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...36 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
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BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-VERNON-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...VERNON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND BE PREPARED FOR MODERATE TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
...WINDS...
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CALCASIEU PARISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD DE RIDDER AND
LEESVILLE BY MID AFTERNOON AS GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DE RIDDER.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
LAKE CHARLES AND VICINITY.
TROPICAL STORM...82 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...19 PERCENT.
DE RIDDER.
TROPICAL STORM...81 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...14 PERCENT.
LEESVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...80 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...12 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
TXZ180>182-201-216-010830-
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HARDIN-JASPER-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ORANGE COUNTY.
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF
SABINE LAKE AFTER THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING ORANGE COUNTY BY MONDAY EVENING...
THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST IN TO EAST TEXAS AS GUSTAV MOVES TO
THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. SOME
SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
TOWN BLUFF.
TROPICAL STORM...65 PERCENT
HURRICANE...6 PERCENT.
VILLAGE MILLS AND WOODVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...59 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...4 PERCENT.
ORANGE.
TROPICAL STORM...70 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...11 PERCENT.
NEWTON.
TROPICAL STORM...73 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...9 PERCENT.
JASPER.
TROPICAL STORM...69 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...7 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
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IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS...A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS IBERIA AND
ST. MARY PARISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ONCE THE EYE OF GUSTAV IS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF ST. MARY
AND IBERIA PARISHES...BRINGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER
CONTINUES NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
INTO VERMILION PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EYE LANDFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF ST. MARY PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE...WITH IBERIA PARISH INUNDATED UP TO LA 87 AND LA 182.
AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
VERMILION PARISH.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMILION PARISH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV REACHES THE LAFAYETTE...ST. LANDRY PARISH
REGION...BRINGING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER CONTINUES
NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF VERMILION PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE SOUTH OF LA 14...WHICH WOULD BE SIMILAR TO HURRICANE
RITA'S STORM SURGE THREE YEARS AGO. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE
BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 120 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH. THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY...TO
FRANKLIN...TO NEW IBERIA...TO LAFAYETTE. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE STORM MOVES INLAND...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO REMAIN A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES
LAFAYETTE.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL
MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.
ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.
NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED
TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.
UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED.
MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT. LIVESTOCK LEFT
OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW LIVESTOCK DEATHS
ARE LIKELY.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN REACH THE NEW IBERIA AND ABBEVILLE
AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MORGAN CITY AREA
LATE MORNING MONDAY...AND THE NEW IBERIA AND ABBEVILLE AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
MORGAN CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...98 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...61 PERCENT.
NEW IBERIA.
TROPICAL STORM...97 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...49 PERCENT.
INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...94 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...40 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-010830-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FROM PORT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FEET BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY...AND REACH INTRACOASTAL CITY AND VERMILION BAY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST WEST OF PECAN ISLAND...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR
SHOULD THERE BE ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
...TORNADOES...
WATER SPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ051-TXZ215-010830-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
CAMERON...JEFFERSON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET
IS EXPECTED ACROSS CAMERON PARISH. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN LOUISIANA...BRINGING THE WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS
THE CENTER CONTINUES NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF CAMERON PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE SOUTH OF LA 384. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT
POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
JEFFERSON
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER
THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CAMERON PARISH MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS
OF CAMERON PARISH AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY SHOULD EXPECT
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS OF
EASTERN CAMERON PARISH SHOULD EXPECT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...50 TO 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
CAMERON.
TROPICAL STORM...76 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...17 PERCENT.
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM...61 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...7 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
13
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