[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Aug 31 18:34:40 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KLCH 312333 PAA
HLSLCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WEST TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND...
.AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 215 MILES
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS STARTING
TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB OR 28.26 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
GMZ450-470-010500-
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COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF
HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FROM PORT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF GUSTAV APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL JEFFERSON AND
COASTAL CAMERON AFTER THE CENTER MOVES WELL INLAND...AND THE
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
NEAR CAMERON
TROPICAL STORM...70 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...15 PERCENT.
NEAR HIGH ISLAND
TROPICAL STORM...40 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...10 PERCENT.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
TXZ215-010500-
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JEFFERSON-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF
HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. THIS INCLUDES JEFFERSON COUNTY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
JEFFERSON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
JEFFERSON COUNTY.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER
THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS OF JEFFERSON SHOULD EXPECT
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM...50 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...10 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALIZED AND
MAINLY URBAN TYPE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
TXZ180-201-010500-
/O.EXB.KLCH.TI.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080902T0900Z/
HARDIN-TYLER-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
HARDIN...TYLER.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.
...WINDS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO TYLER AND
HARDIN COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING...AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. SOME
SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
TOWN BLUFF.
TROPICAL STORM...57 PERCENT
HURRICANE...5 PERCENT.
VILLAGE MILLS AND WOODVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...53 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...4 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALIZED AND
MAINLY URBAN TYPE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
LAZ028-029-031-042-010500-
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/O.EXT.KLCH.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080902T0900Z/
ALLEN-AVOYELLES-JEFFERSON DAVIS-RAPIDES-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
ALLEN...AVOYELLES...JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PREPARE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...55 TO 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY
MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
EVACUATION INFORMATION.
ALLEN.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
JEFFERSON DAVIS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE MARKSVILLE AND JENNINGS AREAS AROUND MID
MORNING MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
OBERLIN AND ALEXANDRIA AREAS AROUND NOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.
MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING
SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
JENNINGS.
TROPICAL STORM...84 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...23 PERCENT.
KINDER.
TROPICAL STORM...82 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...19 PERCENT.
OAKDALE.
TROPICAL STORM...83 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...17 PERCENT.
ALEXANDRIA.
TROPICAL STORM...79 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...11 PERCENT.
MARKSVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...85 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...15 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL
OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
LAZ032-033-043>045-055-010500-
/O.EXT.KLCH.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080902T0900Z/
ACADIA-EVANGELINE-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. LANDRY-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
ACADIA...EVANGELINE...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ACADIA.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR RESIDENTS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
RESIDENTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92...AND FOR MOBILE HOMES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.
ALLEN.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
JEFFERSON DAVIS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
LAFAYETTE.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
UPPER ST. MARTIN.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 125 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE BREAUX BRIDGE...LAFAYETTE AND
OPELOUSAS AREAS BY EARLY TO MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND AS GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST...REACHING
THE CROWLEY AND VILLE PLATTE AREAS BY NOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE BREAUX BRIDGE...
LAFAYETTE AND OPELOUSAS AREAS BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY...AND THE
CROWLEY AND VILLE PLATTE AREAS AFTER SUNSET.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES
OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF
FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN.
ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. UP TO
ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
ST. MARTINVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...93 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...38 PERCENT.
LAFAYETTE.
TROPICAL STORM...91 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...33 PERCENT.
OPELOUSAS.
TROPICAL STORM...90 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...28 PERCENT.
VILLE PLATTE.
TROPICAL STORM...88 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...22 PERCENT.
CROWLEY.
TROPICAL STORM...87 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...28 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
LAZ027-030-041-010500-
/O.EXT.KLCH.TI.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080902T0900Z/
BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-VERNON-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ARE NOW IN
EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...VERNON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BEAUREGARD PARISH.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
CALCASIEU PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT AS OF NOON TODAY.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 130 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 160 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CALCASIEU PARISH BY MID-AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD DE RIDDER AND
LEESVILLE AS GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF DE RIDDER.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
LAKE CHARLES AND VICINITY.
TROPICAL STORM...74 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...15 PERCENT.
DE RIDDER.
TROPICAL STORM...72 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...11 PERCENT.
LEESVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...71 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...9 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
TXZ181-182-216-010500-
/O.EXT.KLCH.TI.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080902T0900Z/
JASPER-NEWTON-ORANGE-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
JASPER...NEWTON...ORANGE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
ORANGE COUNTY.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ORANGE COUNTY.
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF
SABINE LAKE AFTER THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 125 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING ORANGE COUNTY BY MONDAY EVENING...
THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER NEWTON AND JASPER COUNTIES AS
GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
ORANGE.
TROPICAL STORM...62 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...11 PERCENT.
NEWTON.
TROPICAL STORM...65 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...8 PERCENT.
JASPER.
TROPICAL STORM...61 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...6 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
LAZ052>054-010500-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
IBERIA PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
ST. MARY PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
VERMILION PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS...A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS IBERIA AND ST.
MARY PARISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE
THE EYE OF GUSTAV IS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF ST. MARY AND IBERIA
PARISHES...BRINGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER CONTINUES
NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
INTO VERMILION PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE EYE
LANDFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THESE LEVELS...MOST OF
ST. MARY PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH STORM SURGE...WITH
IBERIA PARISH INUNDATED UP TO LA 87 AND LA 182. AGAIN...THIS IS A
WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
VERMILION PARISH.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMILION PARISH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV REACHES THE LAFAYETTE...ST. LANDRY PARISH
REGION...BRINGING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER CONTINUES
NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE EYE
LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE LEVELS...MOST OF
VERMILION PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH STORM SURGE SOUTH OF
LA 14...WHICH WOULD BE SIMILAR TO HURRICANE RITA'S STORM SURGE
THREE YEARS AGO. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS
GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MORGAN CITY AREA
LATE MORNING MONDAY...AND THE NEW IBERIA AND ABBEVILLE AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE
WALL OF A HURRICANE OF THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF
AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED
ROOFS MAY OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE
DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD
FRAMED APARTMENTS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE
UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM
PASSES.
MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND/OR UPROOTED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
MORGAN CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...96 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...52 PERCENT.
NEW IBERIA.
TROPICAL STORM...92 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...40 PERCENT.
INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...88 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...34 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
GMZ452-455-472-475-010500-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FROM PORT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FEET BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS ADJACENT TO ATCHAFALAYA
BAY...BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...TORNADOES...
WATER SPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING.
$$
LAZ051-010500-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
CAMERON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
CAMERON PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
CAMERON
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CAMERON PARISH. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN LOUISIANA...BRINGING THE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE
CENTER CONTINUES NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE EYE
LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE LEVELS...MOST OF
CAMERON PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH STORM SURGE SOUTH OF LA
384. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CAMERON PARISH MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
CAMERON.
TROPICAL STORM...69 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...161 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
$$
13/DML/JB
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