[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KLCH 310439
HLSLCH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE GUSTAV EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...

.AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST...OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF HAVANA CUBA...AND
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS FORECAST
TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...OR 27.99
INCHES.

LAZ028-029-031>033-042>045-311100-
/O.EXB.KLCH.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080901T1400Z/
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

GUSTAV HAS EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAFAYETTE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

HURRICANE WIND WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MAKING PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

ACADIA.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR RESIDENTS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL RESIDENTS
SOUTH OF HWY 92...AND FOR MOBILE HOMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

ALLEN.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT. A RECOMMENDED EVACUATION WILL
START AT 6 AM SUNDAY.

JEFFERSON DAVIS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED ON SUNDAY.

LAFAYETTE.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.

UPPER ST. MARTIN.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA 10 TO 12
HOURS PRIOR TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

ON GUSTAV'S CURRENT PATH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS
GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
START TO IMPACT THE LAFAYETTE AND CROWLEY AREAS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...AND IMPACT THE ALEXANDRIA AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MID MONDAY MORNING AS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 180 MPH.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE EYE
WALL OF A HURRICANE OF THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF
AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS
MAY OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS
WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS
WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS
LIKELY. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND
PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND/OR UPROOTED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

ST. MARTINVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...79 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...32 PERCENT.

LAFAYETTE.
TROPICAL STORM...77 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...29 PERCENT.

OPELOUSAS.
TROPICAL STORM...76 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...27 PERCENT.

MARKSVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...73 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...20 PERCENT.

VILLE PLATTE.
TROPICAL STORM...73 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...23 PERCENT.

JENNINGS.
TROPICAL STORM...69 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...23 PERCENT.

OBERLIN.
TROPICAL STORM...67 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...20 PERCENT.

ALEXANDRIA.
TROPICAL STORM...67 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...16 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

LAZ055-311100-
/O.EXT.KLCH.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080901T1400Z/
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

GUSTAV HAS EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

LOWER ST. MARTIN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

HURRICANE WIND WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MAKING PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR LOWER SAINT MARTIN
PARISH.

...WINDS...

ON GUSTAV'S CURRENT PATH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS GUSTAV
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT LOWER ST MARTIN PARISH BY MID MORNING.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MID MONDAY MORNING AS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 180 MPH.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE WALL OF A
HURRICANE OF THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF
AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS
MAY OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS
WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS
WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS
LIKELY. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND
PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND/OR UPROOTED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

STEPHENSVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...85 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...39 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING

$$

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ051>054-TXZ215-311100-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-IBERIA-JEFFERSON-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

GUSTAV HAS EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

CAMERON...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON,
LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...IBERIA...JEFFERSON...ST.
MARY...VERMILION...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

HURRICANE WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

EVACUATION INFORMATION:

CAMERON PARISH.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS
PLANNED TO BEGIN 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

IBERIA PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

JEFFERSON COUNTY.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

ST. MARY PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.

VERMILION PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES.

AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL OR
PARALLELING THE COAST OF ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO
10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS IBERIA
AND ST. MARY PARISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
INTO VERMILION PARISH AT A CATEGORY FOUR...A STORM SURGE OF 15 TO
20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF THE EYE LANDFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT
THESE LEVELS...ALL OF ST. MARY PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED
WITH STORM SURGE...WITH IBERIA PARISH INUNDATED EXCEPT THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PARISH WEST OF NEW IBERIA ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 90 AND LA 182. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE
SCENARIO.

VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES.

AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMILION PARISH...4
TO 5 FEET ACROSS CAMERON PARISH ON TUESDAY.

IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH AT A CATEGORY FOUR...A STORM SURGE OF 15 TO
20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT
THESE LEVELS...MOST OF VERMILION PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED
WITH STORM SURGE PAST LA 14 AND UP TO LA 82. THESE LEVELS WOULD
LIKELY SURPASS HURRICANE RITA'S STORM SURGE VALUES. AGAIN...THIS
IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

JEFFERSON COUNTY.

AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER
THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

ON GUSTAV'S CURRENT PATH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS
GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE MORGAN CITY 0AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND THE NEW
IBERIA AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 180 MPH.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE WALL OF A
HURRICANE OF THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF
AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS
MAY OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS
WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS
WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS
LIKELY. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND
PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND/OR UPROOTED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

MORGAN CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...85 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...39 PERCENT.

NEW IBERIA.
TROPICAL STORM...79 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...33 PERCENT.

INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...74 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...30 PERCENT.

CAMERON.
TROPICAL STORM...58 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...18 PERCENT.

PORT ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM...50 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...13 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

13


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