[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 310417
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1217 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF...

.AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 530 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.
WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS FORECAST
TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

FLZ008-012-014-015-311200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-
1217 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008 /1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

GUSTAV WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN GUSTS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS OR GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER TO THE
EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. AS A
PRECAUTION...SECURE LOSE OBJECTS LIKE LAWN FURNITURE AND GARBAGE
CANS AS THEY ARE MOST PRONE TO BLOWING OVER. TREE LIMBS...SMALL
SHRUBS...AND EVEN A FEW POWER LINES CAN BE BLOWN DOWN AS WELL. BE
PREPARED FOR SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

SINCE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL WEST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE IS ONLY 2 TO 3 FEET
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA.
FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...REDUCING THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAKING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE EASTERLY
WIND WAVES AND LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM GUSTAV WILL LEAD TO
EXTREMELY ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 FEET
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF DESTIN
AND PANAMA CITY.

THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ALONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF ALONG THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BEACHES
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL PEAK
AT 10 TO 13 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE WATER...INCLUDING
EXPERIENCED SURFERS.

...WINDS...

SO FAR GUSTAV HAS BEEN A WELL BEHAVED STORM IN TERMS OF IT
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TRACK. IF THIS CONTINUES IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST THAN EXPECTED OR INCREASE THE SIZE OF ITS WIND FIELD. IF THIS
HAPPENS...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT AT CARABELLE TO 40 PERCENT AT
DESTIN.

...INLAND FLOODING...

SINCE THE MAIN CORE OF GUSTAV WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN HEAVY BUT FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER EAST THAN
EXPECTED AND SPIRAL BANDS DEVELOP WELL TO THE EAST OF THE STORM
CENTER...THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BE REVISED HIGHER.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM CDT SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ750-755-770-775-311200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1217 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

GUSTAV WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAKING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE EASTERLY
WIND WAVES AND LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM GUSTAV WILL LEAD TO
EXTREMELY ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 FEET
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF DESTIN
AND PANAMA CITY.

...WINDS...

SO FAR GUSTAV HAS BEEN A WELL BEHAVED STORM IN TERMS OF IT
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TRACK. IF THIS CONTINUES THEN SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTAV COULD TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED OR
INCREASE THE SIZE OF ITS WIND FIELD. IF THIS HAPPENS...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 KNOTS COULD REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
PANHANDLE...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM
30 PERCENT SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF DESTIN.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 7 AM CDT SUNDAY.

$$

FOURNIER




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