[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KLCH 302352
HLSLCH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

.AT 400 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ABOUT 80 MILES
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING
THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...OR 27.82 INCHES.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ051>054-TXZ215-310615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.HU.A.1007.080830T2352Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-IBERIA-JEFFERSON-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
652 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

CAMERON...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON,
LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...IBERIA...JEFFERSON...ST.
MARY...VERMILION...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

HURRICANE WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

EVACUATION INFORMATION:

ST. MARY PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.

IBERIA PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

VERMILION:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

CAMERON PARISH:
THERE IS CURRENTLY A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IN PLACE. A MANDATORY
EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

JEFFERSON:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS PLANNED TO BEGIN 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES:

AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL OR
PARALLELING THE COAST OF ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO
10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS IBERIA
AND ST. MARY PARISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
INTO VERMILION PARISH AT A CATEGORY FOUR...A STORM SURGE OF 15 TO
20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF THE EYE LANDFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...ALL OF ST. MARY PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH STORM
SURGE...WITH IBERIA PARISH INUNDATED EXCEPT THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE PARISH WEST OF NEW IBERIA ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 90 AND
LA 182. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES:

AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMILION PARISH...4
TO 5 FEET ACROSS CAMERON PARISH ON TUESDAY.

IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH AT A CATEGORY FOUR...A STORM SURGE OF 15 TO 20
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF VERMILION PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE PAST LA 14 AND UP TO LA 82. THESE LEVELS WOULD LIKELY
SURPASS HURRICANE RITA'S STORM SURGE VALUES. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST
CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

JEFFERSON:

AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER THE
CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON
TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

ON GUSTAV'S CURRENT PATH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS GUSTAV
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE MORGAN CITY AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND THE NEW IBERIA AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 180 MPH.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE
OF THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND
EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS MAY
OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL
HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS WILL BE
SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS
WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND/OR
UPROOTED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

MORGAN CITY:
TROPICAL STORM...81
HURRICANE...33

NEW IBERIA:
TROPICAL STORM...75
HURRICANE...27

INTRACOASTAL CITY:
TROPICAL STORM...72
HURRICANE...27

CAMERON:
TROPICAL STORM...57
HURRICANE...19

PORT ARTHUR:
TROPICAL STORM...50
HURRICANE...14

...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM CDT.

$$

LAZ055-310615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.HI.A.0001.080830T2352Z-080901T0900Z/
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
652 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ST. MARTIN
PARISH.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

LOWER ST. MARTIN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

HURRICANE WIND WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MAKING PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR LOWER SAINT MARTIN
PARISH.

...WINDS...

ON GUSTAV'S CURRENT PATH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS GUSTAV
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
LOWER ST MARTIN PARISH BY MID MORNING.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MID MONDAY MORNING AS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 180 MPH.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE
OF THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND
EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS MAY
OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL
HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS WILL BE
SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS
WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND/OR
UPROOTED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

STEPHENSVILLE
TROPICAL STORM...81
HURRICANE...32

...INLAND FLOODING...

10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM CDT.

$$

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