[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 73.5W AT 27/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 135 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. A WNW TO W TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SE COAST OF CUBA ON
THU. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THU AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM HAITI.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 16N FROM 74W-77W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 69W-76W. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 9N31W TO 16N4W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
20N31W TO 15N37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRIER AIR.
THUS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF
13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE E
PACIFIC REGION AND PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N FROM 75W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 19N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AND THE E
PACIFIC REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 17N15W 16N23W 13N31W 9N40W 7N53W
8N60W. ALL THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W/31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF FAY IS SLOWLY MOVING NE INTO TENNESSEE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WATERS OVER TALLAHASSEE
JUST E OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 28N89W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN APALACHICOLA BAY
FLORIDA AND THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. WEAK UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SW ACROSS THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF MATAMOROS INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS QUIET
AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF A LINE
FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 23N90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS T.S. GUSTAV NEAR SW
HAITI...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 77W-82W AND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
DRAWN N INTO THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. GUSTAV OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 16N BETWEEN
68W-74W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FORM THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N67W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE CLEARING THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 60W-72W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 64W-70W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N63W TO 23N66W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
63W-68W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
MARTINIQUE TO NEAR 15N52W WITH A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
20N58W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-22N BETWEEN 50W-61W. A SECOND BUT BENIGN UPPER LOW COVERS
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N44W EXTENDING S TO 22N. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE WESTERN SAHARA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH REMAINS SW OF BERMUDA
NEAR 30N71W.

$$
WALLACE




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