[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KJAX 190617
HLSJAX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...STORM INFORMATION...

...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH YET AS FAY APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA......

AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH
OF NAPLES FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A MOTION JUST EAST OF
DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM
THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
THE CMAN STATION AT MOLASSES REEF.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

FLZ024-025-033-038-191000-
/O.CON.KJAX.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2100Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
217 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WITH FAY MOVING OFFSHORE AND THEN POSSIBLY STALLING OVER NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR INLAND COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

...WINDS...
AS FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY RIGHT
LONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND ON
PORTIONS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FOR THE CITY OF JACKSONVILLE...THERE IS A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS OR 39 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 64
KNOTS OR 74 MPH. THESE PROBABILITIES MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE STORM SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION SUBSTANTIALLY. IF
THE STORM STALLS NEAR THE AREA THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN CAN PRODUCE FLOODING OF
ROADS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH POOR DRAINAGE. KNOWN INTERSECTIONS
WITH VERY POOR DRAINAGE MAY HAVE WATER LEVELS UP TO 3 FEET. OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL HAVE WATER RISES OF 1 FOOT. IF
APPROACHING A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

PERSONS IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS MONCRIEF
CREEK...MCCOYS CREEK AND HOGANS CREEK...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE
ISSUED.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 600 AM EDT ON TUESDAY.

$$

AMZ452-454-472-474-191000-
/O.CON.KJAX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
217 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WITH FAY MOVING OFFSHORE AND THEN POSSIBLY STALLING OVER NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TODAY AND OTHERWISE
NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

...WINDS...
AS THE CIRCULATION OF FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR 50 KNOTS OR GREATER WINDS. THESE
PROBABILITIES MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF FAY.

...TORNADOES...
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF
FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR
TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAIN
BANDS. THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 600 AM EDT ON TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ020>023-030>032-035>037-040-191000-
/O.CON.KJAX.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2100Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-GILCHRIST-
ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
217 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WITH FAY MOVING OFFSHORE AND THEN POSSIBLY STALLING OVER NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...BAKER...UNION...BRADFORD...
CLAY...GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

...WINDS...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL EXIST BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS OR 39
MPH OR GREATER OVER INTERIOR NORTH FLORIDA. THESE PROBABILITIES
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES FARTHER EAST. IF THE STORM STALLS NEAR THE
AREA THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN CAN PRODUCE FLOODING AND WASHOUTS OF ROADS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. KNOWN INTERSECTIONS WITH VERY POOR DRAINAGE
MAY HAVE WATER LEVELS UP TO 3 FEET. OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL
HAVE WATER RISES OF 1 FOOT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
INCREASE IF FAY MOVES MORE SLOWLY THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF
APPROACHING A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN THE MORE FAVORABLE FRONT QUADRANT
OF THE SYSTEM.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 600 AM EDT ON TUESDAY.

$$

AMZ450-470-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-191000-
/O.CON.KJAX.HU.S.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
217 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WITH FAY MOVING OFFSHORE AND THEN POSSIBLY STALLING OVER NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INTERESTS IN COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...BACON...
APPLING...WAYNE...ATKINSON...WARE...PIERCE...BRANTLEY...GLYNN...
ECHOLS...CLINCH...CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NONE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR ANY UPDATES OR WARNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND WE MAY
EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...THE BAYS
AND SOUNDS AS FAY APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF COASTAL GEORGIA EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
THESE PROBABILITIES MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF FAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
EXIST ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IF THE STORM STALLS OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF FUTURE STATEMENTS ON RAINFALL AND
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH FAY. INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY
WISH TO REVIEW THEIR FLOODING PLANS AT THIS TIME.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 600 AM EDT ON TUESDAY.

$$

SANDRIK


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