[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 81.8W OR ABOUT 40 NM
SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA AT 19/0600 UTC MOVING NORTH AT 6 KT. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. FAY COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FAY IS
ELONGATED ALONG A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR HAVANA NE ACROSS S FLORIDA
AND THE N BAHAMAS TO NEAR 27N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N AND E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N83W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS TO 27N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 75W-82W. FAY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH-FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATE 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR PALM BEACH TO MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
33W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED
FROM 20N60W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF GUADELOUPE TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N27W 12N34W 10N46W 8N55W
9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE GULF TONIGHT IS T.S. FAY OFF THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. NARROWING UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E U.S. TO THE N GULF COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND EXTENDING FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SE
OVER N TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG NEAR 25N97W THEN IS BEING DRAWN NE
TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W BY THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF
LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 27N91W. THE CENTRAL AND S GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE N FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS T.S. FAY MOVES INLAND
LATER THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NOW THAT T.S. FAY HAS CLEARED THE AREA LEAVING SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN HER WAKE N OF 18N
ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS GIVING MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER LOW WITH NE UPPER FLOW W OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC
OVER PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA. THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
HAITI AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC THIS MORNING IS THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N OF
THE REGION AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE BUT IS STILL GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W
OF 75W TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 24N63W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO JUST N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE N
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO 26N64W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 22N50W TO BEYOND 32N51W PROVIDING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N59W TO 27N56W. A
LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N41W
WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N21W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE ATLC E OF 60W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N42W SSW TO 17N52W
AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS SW THROUGH BERMUDA TO ENE OF THE T.S.
FAY NEAR 28N74W.

$$
WALLACE




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