[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 182319 PAA
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.AT 500 PM EDT, 2100Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES AND 130 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT, AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND FAY IS FORECAST
TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

FLZ174-190600-
/O.UPG.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.
WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
        TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS FOR FAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH, ARE NOW
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL BE SPREADING TO FAR
SOUTH DADE COUNTY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

STORM TIDE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF FLORIDA BAY EAST OF FLAMINGO
COULD POSSIBLY 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONSHORE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FAY, PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THESE TIMES. HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY WILL BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH,
ARE NOW OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR HIGHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT IF THE STORM TRACKS RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THAT WINDS COULD END UP BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SPIRAL
BANDS HAVE PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ069-075-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A HURRICANE AND
SHOULD IT TRACK FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THANT FORECAST IT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS POSSIBILITY WERE TO
MATERIALIZE, IT COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AND
THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF
MANUFACTURED HOMES. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WAS ANTICIPATING OPENING THREE SHELTERS AROUND 4 PM EDT EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND
EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND
MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE 3 AM
TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT THE SECOND
HIGH TIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT 6 PM RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AT
FLAMINGO STATION, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 33 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND, BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD
FAY TRACK RIGHT OF FORECAST OR END UP BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND
AREAS WITH RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY AREA SO FAR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND A GUST TO 44
KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT 600 PM EDT
AT FLAMINGO. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 64
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE LIKELY FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET
NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS WINDS INCREASE.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY
PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172-173-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN RANGING IN
THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS IN MIAMI
DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LATEST
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY TRACK
EAST OF THE FORECAST AND SHOULD IT BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST,
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BEGINNING TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS
OBSERVED SO FAR AROUND POMPANO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS TO FIND SHELTER
WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SQUALLS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
MOVES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE
HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE
FORCE STILL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT 80 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE MIAMI DADE PORTION
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.


$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 4 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 53 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
EARLIER TODAY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS ARE NOW
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY
MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING LIKE SO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY THE EVENING. PEAK WINDS WITH THE EVENT IN
THE CURRENT SCENARIO COULD POSSIBLY REACH 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF
THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS.
IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER
LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$




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