[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 181259 PAA
HLSMFL
AAA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRENGTHENING SOGGY FAY MOVING TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...

.AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.2
NORTH LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE EMERGING
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES
OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ069-075-174-181615-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
859 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

POSITION UPDATED.
EXPECTED PATH UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL COLLIER...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...MAINLAND MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HURRICANE WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. THE FIRST SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY ARE
ALREADY ONSHORE AND FAY WILL LIKELY BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALL STOCKING OF
PROVISIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS IN THE YARD,
TAKE UP ANY TEMPORARY CAMPAIGN OR REAL ESTATE SIGNS AND STORE THEM
INSIDE. TAKE IN OUTSIDE GRILLS AND PATIO FURNITURE. PARK VEHICLES
IN GARAGES OR AWAY FROM TREES.

A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
COLLIER COUNTY FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS INCLUDING RESIDENTS AROUND
CHOCOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK AREA, EVERGLADES CITY, GOODLAND,
MARCO ISLAND, LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS, AND GORDON RIVER AREAS. THE
STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF MANUFACTURED HOME
COMMUNITIES. BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE VISITOR CENTER IS
CLOSED UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. POLITICAL CANDIDATES ARE ASKED TO
REMOVE ELECTION SIGNS TO PREVENT THEM FROM FLYING AROUND.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, FAY WOULD MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT
INCREASING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. SOME EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE STORM
PASSES, STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE
SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM
TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE NEAR
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY PARTICULARLY AT THE SECOND HIGH
TIDE AROUND 5 PM TUESDAY. MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, A STORM TIDE OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE
TIME OF THE SECOND HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY 3 PM.

RESIDENTS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES ESPECIALLY MARCO ISLAND, GOODLAND,
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED TO DO BY COLLIER
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

...WINDS...

WITH THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CLOSER OR PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING TODAY, WITH
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO
COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, FROM JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, A
HURRICANE WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS, POOL
ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES
BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND BECOME
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES
AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE TRUCKS
AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, EXCEPT WITH
POCKETS OF WIDESPREAD OUTAGES IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND POWER
LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 8 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF
SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL
AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 12 NOON EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-181615-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
859 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND EFFECTS UPDATED.
MARINE EFFECTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20
NM...GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HURRICANE WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

WITH THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOVING THROUGH OR PERHAPS JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WINDS
WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING TODAY WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE REACHING THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, A HURRICANE WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN A FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
GUSTING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 5 TO 10
FEET NEARSHORE. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY, AS WINDS INCREASE. MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT.
BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172-173-181615-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
859 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

POSITION UPDATED.
EXPECTED TRACK UPDATED.
WIND AND SURGE EFFECTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE COMPLETE OR RUSHED TO COMPLETION. OUTER SPIRAL BANDS
FROM FAY ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. ALL
STOCKING OF PROVISIONS SHOULD BE FINISHED. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS IN THE
YARD, TAKE UP ANY TEMPORARY CAMPAIGN OR REAL ESTATE SIGNS AND
STORE THEM INSIDE. TAKE IN OUTSIDE GRILLS AND PATIO FURNITURE.
PARK VEHICLES IN GARAGES OR AWAY FROM TREES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO
ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TODAY AND TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING
TODAY, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM BEACH AREAS.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN
ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS
OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY
DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF
RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG
DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS
THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-181615-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
859 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

POSITION UPDATED.
FORECAST TRACK UPDATED.
EFFECTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND
MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI
DADE...METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE DONE OR RUSHED TO COMPLETION. SPIRAL BANDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM FAY ARE MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. ALL STOCKING OF
PROVISIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS IN THE YARD,
TAKE UP ANY TEMPORARY CAMPAIGN OR REAL ESTATE SIGNS AND STORE THEM
INSIDE. TAKE IN OUTSIDE GRILLS AND PATIO FURNITURE. PARK VEHICLES
IN GARAGES OR AWAY FROM TREES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO
ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF FAY MOVES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS.

ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM BEACH AREAS.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN
ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE LA BELLE, CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN AREAS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL
THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS
OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY
DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF
RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG
DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS
THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON EDT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-181615-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
859 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
EXPECTED TRACK UPDATED.
WIND EFFECTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BISCAYNE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATERS FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING
TODAY, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING TODAY...
BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS BY THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE BEGINNING AROUND 3
AM TUESDAY LASTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3
PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON SPREADING NORTH THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. IF FAY
MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING TODAY, BECOMING
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS BY THIS EVENING.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE BEGINNING AROUND 3 AM
TUESDAY LASTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING
LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE
TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY AND
CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON EDT.

$$






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