[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181204 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 81.2W OR ABOUT 70 NM
EAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 85 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA AT 18/1200 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY COVERS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 16N-27N
BETWEEN 72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE CENTER WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W ACROSS CUBA TO
21N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 76W-84W INCLUDING THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS...S FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
31W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED FROM 20N55W
THROUGH A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR 19N58W BETWEEN
BARBADOS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ACROSS
TRINIDAD TO 9N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
DISTORTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE N OF 17N.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N23W 11N34W 8N45W 11N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 48W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-29W AND WITHIN 90
NM OF A LINE FROM 9N27W TO 6N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE GULF THIS MORNING IS THE APPROACHING
T.S. FAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE E U.S. TO THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO
EXTENDING ALONG 25N TO 89W. WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
28N86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85W. CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR E GULF
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS
T.S. FAY MOVES OFF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE T.S. FAY. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA NEAR
71W. THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
FOR THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC THIS MORNING IS T.S. FAY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE U.S.
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N OF THE REGION BUT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO
29N80W WITH ISOLATED N OF 28N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NE
FLORIDA. UPPER HIGH IS OVER T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE A CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 27N W OF 71W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N62W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 59W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 30N54W TO 23N57W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 26N49W. A PAIR OF
BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE E ATLC WITH ONE NEAR 27N39W AND A
SECOND JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N21W. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W S TO 20N50W AND A SECOND RIDGE
AXIS SW THROUGH BERMUDA TO NE OF THE T.S. FAY NEAR 26N74W.

$$
WALLACE









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