[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 180358
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY STILL HAS ITS SIGHTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS
IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...
BREVARD...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.


FLZ053-058-190400-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...


...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST...BUT WITH A LITTLE
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
OVERALL TRACK TO THE EAST.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PLAN TO WAKE UP A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY
MORNING IN ORDER TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST...THEN ADJUST THEIR
DAY ACCORDINGLY.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
(THAT IS...THE SKINNY BLACK LINE) AS THERE ARE STILL INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES WHICH MUST BE SMARTLY FACTORED IN FOR SAFETY
PURPOSES. IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

DURING A WATCH...IT IS A GOOD TIME FOR PEOPLE TO GO OVER THEIR
PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH
AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING
WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY
SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND
HAVE SOME EXTRA FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF
NEEDED. IT IS ALSO BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS
MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL
PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS
AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.


...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO BE 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH OUT
THE DAY.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A
REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
TO 57 MPH.

LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A
VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD
EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...AWNINGS...AND POOL
ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO UNANCHORED MOBILE
HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING
CLOSURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.


...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.


...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-054-059-064-141-144-147-
190400-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...MORE WIND WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
EARLY MORNING...


...NEW INFORMATION...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN
MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...
BREVARD... LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA...RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR
RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM
PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...
DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID
SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD PLAN TO WAKE UP A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY
MORNING IN ORDER TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST...THEN ADJUST THEIR
DAY ACCORDINGLY.


...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS AND GUSTS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT.
YET...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE WINDY FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
ALSO...CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A
50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR
ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE
CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT
DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
EITHER WAY...SURF CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH
EROSION TAKING PLACE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL
ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.


...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.


...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES
OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

...MARINE...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA
PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$






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