[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Aug 17 11:16:35 CDT 2008
WTUS82 KMFL 171615 PAA
HLSMFL
AAB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...PREPARATIONS FOR FAY SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...
.AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 435 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES OR 375 SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY COULD
BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA.
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA, FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
FLZ069-075-174-172115-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
LOCATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE EFFECTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TIMING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL COLLIER...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...MAINLAND MONROE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLANS AND RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
DRINKING WATER, RECOMMENDED ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD, REMEMBER THE CAN OPENER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MAY NOT WORK IF POWER IS OUT
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
IF OR WHEN HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT COULD SPECIFICALLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK SIZE
AND INTENSITY OF FAY. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE IS
POSSIBLE WITH FAY ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, FAY WOULD MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE
CENTER REMAINING OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 6
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER
COUNTY COASTLINE NEAR CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY PARTICULARLY
AT THE SECOND HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 PM TUESDAY. MINOR FLOODING OF
COASTAL ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.
FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, A STORM TIDE OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE
TIME OF THE SECOND HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY MID
AFTERNOON.
RESIDENTS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES ESPECIALLY MARCO ISLAND, GOODLAND,
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED TO DO BY COLLIER
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
...WINDS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF
COAST WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM 39 TO 73 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING
NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MID AFTERNOON
TUESDAY, PEAKING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER A TRACK
CLOSER OR OVER THE COLLIER OR MAINLAND MONROE COASTLINE COULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 74 MPH. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
ALL RESIDENTS OF COLLIER COASTAL COMMUNITIES INCLUDING METRO
NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY FROM FAY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NOW A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY.
...TORNADOES...
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 PM EDT.
$$
GMZ656-657-676-172115-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
LOCATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE EFFECTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TIMING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20
NM...
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD START TAKING ACTION NOW TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT
ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM TIDE
AND HIGH WINDS. SECURING MARINE CRAFT IN MARINAS OR ALONGSIDE
DOCKS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA LINE FOR THE RISE AND FALL OF THE STORM
TIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT COULD SPECIFICALLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK SIZE
AND INTENSITY OF FAY.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, FAY WOULD MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH THE
CENTER REMAINING OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 6
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND
COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE NEAR CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY
PARTICULARLY AT THE SECOND HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 PM TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE, A STORM
TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE STORM ENDS UP MAKING LANDFALL.
...WINDS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL BE INCREASING STEADILY AND REACHING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE PEAKING NEAR CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE FORCE, 75 TO 80
MPH, DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NOW A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 39 TO 73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.
...TORNADOES...
THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK
STRIKING TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF SQUALLS.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
GUSTING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 5 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
MARINERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE PORT AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE EXACT PATH AND INTENSITY OF FAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO PROTECT MARINE
CRAFT AND SHORELINE PROPERTY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 PM EDT.
$$
FLZ168-172-173-172115-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
LOCATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE EFFECTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TIMING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLANS AND RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
DRINKING WATER, RECOMMENDED ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD, REMEMBER THE CAN OPENER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MAY NOT WORK IF POWER IS OUT
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
IF OR WHEN TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK UNCERTAINTY A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE,
WHICH WILL BE FROM 10 AM TO AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
COASTAL MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING WITH
PEAK TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS COULD CHANGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
AND THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM BEACH AREAS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL
THREE LOCATIONS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK
STRIKING TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF SQUALLS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 PM EDT.
$$
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-172115-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
LOCATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE EFFECTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TIMING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BISCAYNE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATERS FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS NOW TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT
ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET, NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.
...WINDS...
WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS FAY PASSES TO THE WEST OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY,
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. FREQUENT
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
...TORNADOES...
THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK
STRIKING TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF SQUALLS.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 34 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE INCREASING AS HIGH AS 6 TO 8 FEET DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY
MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULAR LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING MONDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD REACH 40 TO 50 MPH, TROPICAL STORM FORCE, BY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
SQUALLS. A TRACK CLOSER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR A STRONGER INTENSITY
STORM WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND WORSE MARINE IMPACT.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 PM EDT.
$$
FLZ063-066>068-070>074-172115-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...
...NEW INFORMATION...
LOCATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE EFFECTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TIMING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
GLADES
HENDRY
INLAND BROWARD AND METRO BROWARD
INLAND COLLIER
INLAND AND METRO MIAMI-DADE
INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLANS AND RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
DRINKING WATER, RECOMMENDED ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD, REMEMBER THE CAN OPENER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MAY NOT WORK IF POWER IS OUT
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WIND WARNING BE ISSUED, PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK UNCERTAINTY A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE,
WHICH WILL BE FROM 10 AM TO AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY.
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET, NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.
...WINDS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
INLAND AND METRO MIAMI-DADE, INLAND AND METRO BROWARD, INLAND AND
METRO PALM BEACH AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING WITH PEAK
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SQUALLS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING ALL DAY TUESDAY
WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY
NIGHT REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS. DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY, WINDS FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HIGH AS 40 TO 60 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUESDAY EVENING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM BEACH AREAS AND A
55 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE FORT
MYERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL INLAND LOCATIONS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK
STRIKING TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF SQUALLS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 PM EDT.
$$
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