[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W WITH A WEAK 1011
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A NOAA
AIRCRAFT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID
NOT FIND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AT FLIGHT LEVEL THUS THE SYSTEM
WAS NOT UPGRADED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
61W-64W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE TURK AND CAICOS...AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS TILTED FROM 19N42W
TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N45W TO 8N47W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 40W-42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N20W 8N30W 12N45W 9N50W
9N60W. A 1009 MB LOW IS JUST E OF DAKAR SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THIS LOW CENTER
ALONG THE COAST FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 17W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS.
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N AND OVER FLORIDA.  MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 89W-92W. 5-10 KT SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N TEXAS NEAR 28N103W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO S
FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 25N. EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE NRN COLOMBIAN COAST.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 70W-77W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WRN
NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 75W. MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
N OF 15N AND E OF 66W. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF 72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC S OF 26N AND W OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N38W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N32W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N14W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF 75W.

$$
FORMOSA






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