[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 56W/57W S OF
20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
TSTMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 15N SW TO NEAR 12N35W WHERE A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN MAKING THE LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE SIGNATURE DIFFICULT TO
TRACK. THE MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
...TWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 15N30W 9N37W 10N46W 12N51W
13N58W ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AXIS NEAR 12N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF
THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 14W-23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
37W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST ANCHORED
OVER NRN MEXICO AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA IS
GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN GALVESTON TEXAS AND JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PRODUCING RETURN
FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE/STRONG S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE W
GULF AND MODERATE S WINDS OVER THE E GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS THE GULF N OF 26N DUE TO
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN GULF...OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH NE UPPER FLOW. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED
OVER NE VENEZUELA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA
AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA WHICH EXTENDS
TROUGHING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AS TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 56W/57W APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W IN THE
WRN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THIN HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS EWD OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 65W. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
THE SE CONUS IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS OUT OVER THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 72W-82W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S THROUGH
32N61W TO E OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 28N61W WITH AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N70W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 32N60W SW TO 26N70W.
A SERIES OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH THE FIRST INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA
NEAR 26N13W TO A SECOND NEAR 29N32W TO A THIRD NEAR 30N50W.
THESE UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC
E OF 55W. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A SMALL AND NARROW AREA OF
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
56W/57W BY THE UPPER LOW NEAR 30N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N46W TO 23N52W. OTHERWISE A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF
THE REGION NEAR 36N40W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND ENCOMPASSES CUBA.

$$
HUFFMAN



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