[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 42W/44W SOUTH OF 18N.
THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W
AND 47W. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL PUERTO RICO...AND MAY OR
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AFTERNOON HEATING...AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW ALSO MAY AIDING THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAHAMAS-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO BOTH ENDS OF CUBA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 11N30W 13N40W 7N51W 8N60W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W
AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF 7N16W 1N36W TO 10N...
AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ON TOP OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL SECTIONS FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO...SETTING OF
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W
ACROSS CUBA TO 16N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 24N62W TOWARD
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 10N75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W ALONG THE
PANAMA COAST. THESE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ...WITH
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 26N59W TO 24N62W TOWARD PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N50W.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net