[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 16N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE DEFINED AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THE
WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. INVERTED-V CLOUD SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N36W 10N41W 11N57W 11N60W
11N64W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 13W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
21W-24W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N41W TO 6N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS EXTENDS RIDGING
OVER THE NWRN GULF WATERS N OF 22N AND W OF 86W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 24N AND E OF 86W. AS OF
10/0300Z...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N TO SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE NE GULF SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT INTO THE W
ATLC. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
92W...BUT STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE
SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE E CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N99W
AND REMAINS A RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. RATHER
LIGHT S-SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER ERN CUBA AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 80W. BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WHICH ARE PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS AIDING IN GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS S OF 10N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NRN COLOMBIAN COAST. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN U.S. INTO THE FAR
W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING
THE AREA NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE SE CENTERED NEAR
27N70W AND COUPLED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 68W-75W. AN
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N63W AND IS GENERATING A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 55W-60W. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 26N47W WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR
29N26W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 22N34W. IN BETWEEN...A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS. THE MAIN
ONE IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 19N51W AND THE OTHER OFF THE W
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N23W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED
BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED SE OF THE
AZORES AND ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N44W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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