[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT
10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
...AND THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A BULGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG 32W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS
BROKEN. THE N PART IS MOVING NWD OVER THE W ATLC WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAVE IS ADJUSTED ALONG 69W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
LOCATION IS BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. THE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS S OF HISPANIOLA
TO NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 63W-70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA
ALONG 92W S OF 23W MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER S MEXICO FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 92W-96W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N20W 13N31W 11N35W 11N62W.
A LARGE CLUSTER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 35W-38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. EDOUARD IS
LOCATED NEAR 31N96.4W ...OR 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WACO TEXAS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1009 MB. EDOUARD IS STILL PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER INLAND E TEXAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO E OF 84W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER NE TEXAS DUE TO EDOUARD. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1007
MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-81W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N68W TO 22N71W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A 1019 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N53W. YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N34W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 27N E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
32W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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