[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 29.6N 94.2W AT
05/1200 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS IN THE MCFADDIN
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 MPH/23 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
EDOUARD IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND WIND
SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 91W-94W.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. OUTER BANDS OF EDOUARD
ARE AFFECTING THE COASTLINE WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N31W. CYCLONIC
TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 26W-35W. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS
CONFIRMED THE EXISTENCE OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WAVE WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
44W-50W.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 65W S OF 25N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE N PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK AWAY AND MOVE NWD...THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
86W/87W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE WAVE PAIRED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-20N WEST OF 83W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N24W 12N31W 10N40W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
80W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 20N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NW OF EDOUARD
OVER E TEXAS NEAR 28N97W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N
TEXAS NEAR 34N100W MOVING SW. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...
EDOUARD TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1008
MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR HAITI AND
JAMAICA FROM 17W-19W BETWEEN 73W-78W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 87W-90W. SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA N OF 20N W OF 76W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HAITI AND JAMAICA. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
21N71W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N22W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS N OF 27N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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