[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 28W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 TO
20 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 42W FROM 12N TO 23N IS MOVING W
ABOUT 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT
18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED MOSTLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W AND
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A 0850Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES SEVERAL 20 TO 25 KT WIND BARBS EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W
AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADDED BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND OVER/NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W IS MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND OFF THE PANAMA COAST
AND N OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 9N35W 7N50W 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 7N19W TO 7N23W LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 21N99W AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED JUST
W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION LOCATED N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A
WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER W
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE
SW QUADRANT.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 45W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
LOCATED WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...6 TO 7 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 10
KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 31N38W TO 28N50W TO 26N65W INTO S FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 45W...
OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N30W...MOVING NE 10 TO
15 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR
26N35W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WINDS ARE EASTERLY ALOFT AND
MEASURE UP TO 40 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS.

$$
CAB




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