[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 3N25W 1N32W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-34W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 5W-20W AND FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E TEXAS COAST N TO JUST W OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING TOWARD THE SE US. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N E OF 86W
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER IN THE GULF
REGION. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THAT AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE E US N OF THE
REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE N GULF N
OF 25N GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE W GULF SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD BANK ALONG THE NE
MEXICO AND TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE
GULF LATE ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ENTERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF SANTA CLARA TO
OVER THE YUCATAN AT N BELIZE TO N GUATEMALA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA S OF 12N
FROM OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SMALL AREA OF
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE...REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY...REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
15N TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 80W-84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 72W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE E
US N OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST E OF SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 23N72W TO 26N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 32N60W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUE TO BE
GENERATED OVER E CUBA E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NE INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN CUBA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N53W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N59W. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF
THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 32N37W S ALONG 24N43W THEN W ALONG 18N56W TO JUST N OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NNE BEYOND
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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