[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N35W... CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 1W-10W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 22W-27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 39W-42W...AND FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO ALONG 29N90W 24N99W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 94W-97W.  25-30
KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SELY WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 83W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR S FLORIDA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W
23N90W 18N95W WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS N
OF THE FRONT W OF 94W WITHIN 12 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
AND W OF 78W WHERE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL.  A 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N72W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF
15N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N AND W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 30N71W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW ATLANTIC.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W
TO 26N47W 22N56W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 MN OF THE
FRONT.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N28W.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO
26N38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-80W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 25W-50W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 15N AND E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA.  IN THE TROPICS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 7N48W.  EXPECT THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO BECOME SURFACE
TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA




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