[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W EQ30W EQ40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO 1S50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 25W-31W...
AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 35W-44W.  A SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS IS SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S1W 7S10W 7S20W 3S40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 2E-3W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-6S BETWEEN
29W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N88W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 91W-92W.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO BETWEEN 96W-99W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF
88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 85W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 88W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF
88W.  EXPECT...RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA HOWEVER FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 73W-78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND N OF PUERTO RICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR
THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N AND E OF 70W WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 30N75W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 30N74W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN
72W-75W.  ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N70W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
28N-30N BETWEEN 67W-69W.  ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED LOW IS N OF THE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
34N48W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 35N47W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 24N53W WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
31N27W.  EXPECT THE TWO SURFACE LOWS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE
SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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