[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

4N1W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 8W...2S10W 2S20W 2S40W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W AND 42W...AND FROM
1N TO 3N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF 90W.
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N89W. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA GULF COAST AT SUNRISE HAS
DISSIPATED GRADUALLY INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE U.S.A. CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
BASIN EAST OF 80W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA BUT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 32N77W TO ELEUTHERA ISLAND TO MAYAGUANA. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THREE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W
THAT ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
33N76W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
23N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 10 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N71W TO 26N68W 24N67W
22N69W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N51W 23N53W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N25W TO 21N40W 14N48W...AND IS PROVIDING
FRESH TRADE WINDS WEST OF 25W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WHERE SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY FLOW.  LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TRADE WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN/MT

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