[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 48W AND ENTERING NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 26W AND THE
COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME/GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO INTERIOR MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PRETTY
MUCH HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPLETELY. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN GIVEN AN INFUSION OF NEW ENERGY
BY A SECOND DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH 31N75W
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 26N TO 27N ALONG 80W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W TO 26N87W. SURFACE CONFLUENT
WIND FLOW AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 10 TO 15 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A SECOND TROUGH IS DENOTED BY A THIN LINE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 10 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N78W TO 29N79W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CROSSES
FLORIDA AND HEADS STRAIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA SOUTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 77W AND 100W...COVERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN EAST-TO-WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 8N. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH OF 15N.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOSTLY AFFECTS THE AREA EAST OF 73W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 27N61W TO 20N62W TO THE ISLANDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N52W TO 23N60W
21N67W 21N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BEYOND 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.
A RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N15W
TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N31W TO 25N47W AND
20N57W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N19W TO 18N32W TO 13N36W.

$$
MT



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