[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. A LARGE CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE AXIS TO 6N
BETWEEN 19W-30W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-5N W
OF 37W AND INLAND OVER S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N83W ALONG
26N85W TO 26N90W. AS OF 09Z...THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS DRY IN
NATURE AND IS NOTED BY A WIND SHIFT RATHER THAN ANY CONVECTION.
SHIP AND BUOY OBS SHOW N WINDS 5 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
SEPARATED FROM S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN
THE EAST GULF. SE RETURN FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND WEST GULF. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
ALOFT...NWLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REGION. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N.
ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH INDUCES
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N. OTHERWISE...THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE AND ENTERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING OVER THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...HOWEVER...MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AS OF 09Z... THE CONVECTION EXTENDED ALONG A
LINE FROM 30N79W TO 28N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE CONVECTION NW OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 68W-73W. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST...A SFC TROUGH
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N54W AND STRETCHES SW TO NEAR
23N62W. SCATTERED CLOUDS SURROUND THE TROUGH. THE CENTRAL AND
EAST ATLC REMAINS TRANQUIL AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRANSPORTS FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND A 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N38W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS TRANSPORTING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA S OF 16N.

$$
WADDINGTON



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