[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 1N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 1N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 2W-4W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-10W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-42W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 42W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS SE LOUISIANA
EXTENDING ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ
THEN CONTINUING INLAND NW OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
N GULF N OF 24N W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE SW GULF
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE E GULF
AND ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF IN SPITE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE DRIEST
AIR OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS THUS CLEARING SKIES W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS QUIET TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN TO
WASH OUT OVER THE GULF AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE N
GULF COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE FROM THE TROPICS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING MOST OF THE AREA UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE
TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 83W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA
S OF 10N E OF 78W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E COVERING THE SE US INTO
THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N76W. NARROWING
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 55W-70W WITH THE UPPER
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N63W TO NEAR 22N69W WHERE
IT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK N OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N40W AND THE SURFACE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E ATLC
TO 23N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR THE MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA
BORDER ALONG 25N28W THEN NW TO 28N36W. THE AREA OF THE E ATLC IS
RELATIVELY DRY THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED. THE TYPICAL
E/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS REMAINS TO THE S GENERATING A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 22N17W 16N30W TO
14N50W.

$$
WALLACE




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