[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N7W 4N18W 2N32W 3N39W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA BETWEEN
6W-9W WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 21W-24W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE GULF AND
INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NE TO ALONG E US COAST PROVIDING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND RATHER DRY AIR OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD COVERING THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W
ATLC. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BANKING
LOW LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS. THIS FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER
TODAY DISSIPATING OVER THE E GULF SAT INTO SUN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS OVER HISPANIOLA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
TO OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A
LINE FROM HISPANIOLA S OF JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS. CONVERGENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COST RICA S OF 11N W
OF 80W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 58W TO THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W SW
TO 26N72W. DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS SHIFTING FROM THE US AND E GULF
OF MEXICO COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 78W WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N78W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 26N39W AND THE SURFACE 1031 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR
33N43W. AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE NE ATLC TO
29N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 30W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT N OF THE REGION. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
TROPICS REMAINS TO THE S GENERATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING 14W.
THUS THE ATLC E OF 58W HAS FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE





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