[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
32W TO 1S40W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE AXIS
BETWEEN 4W-10W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT E
OF 84W WHERE NLY FLOW AROUND A SFC RIDGE HAS PUSHED THE MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA...AND W OF 95W WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN
MODIFIED BY S TO SE RETURN FLOW. ALOFT...CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS CREATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH IS ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC ACROSS THE SW GULF. EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
GULF TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LEADING OF TWO COLD FRONTS IN THE CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AS THE SECONDARY SURGE BECOMES DOMINANT. AS OF
09Z...THE LEADING FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 19N72W TO 16N78W.
THE SECONDARY SURGE STRETCHED FROM SE CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO
SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE BOUNDARIES IS CONFINED TO THE W ATLC LEAVING ONLY
PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO MERGE IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 80W
FROM 15N TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH. DIVERGENCE
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MOSQUITOES IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION AT THE SFC. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATE THE REGION USHERING IN
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC DUE TO
A 1007 MB SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N75W. SHIP AND BUOY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE LOW
CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE
AS THE LOW TRACKS N OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE LOW N OF 26N W OF 67W. FARTHER
EAST...TWO COLD FRONTS REMAIN IN THE W ATLC. AS OF 09Z...THE
LEADING BOUNDARY ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N62W AND EXTENDS SW TO
THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A THIN BAND OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS UP TO 60
NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N65W
ALONG 25N70W TO NE CUBA NEAR 21N75W. LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO FRONTS. THE LEADING FRONT IS SLOW MOVING AND IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE LATER TODAY.

THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS RATHER TRANQUIL DUE TO A BROAD DEEP
LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N40W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. STRONG WLY UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER W AFRICA AND A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS IS SPREADING A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS S OF 17N.

$$
WADDINGTON






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