[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N
BETWEEN 24W-28W...AND FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 43W-48W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST
OF THE GULF E OF 93W.  WINDS ARE NLY 15-20 KT E OF 90W...AND
SELY 10 KT W OF 93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE GULF.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 30N
AND E OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT
THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 16N86W.  LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT.  A SECONDARY SURGE IN THE
FORM OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N79W 19N88W.  A 1009 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
N FROM THE LOW TO HAITI ALONG 14N77W 20N72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 80W-92W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE SECONDARY SURGE COLD FRONT TO
MERGE WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE W AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTS.  CONVECTION IS
LIKELY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-85W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N65W 21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO 25N74W TO 22N79W.
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH
IS N OF 28N AND W OF 70W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 20N55W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N45W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-80W EXCEPT N OF 25N
BETWEEN 65W-70W.  EXPECT THE SECONDARY SURGE COLD FRONT TO MERGE
WITH THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT AND EXTEND FROM 32N 63W TO
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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