[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130628
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W...STAYING EITHER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W AND
47W...AND THEN ENTERING NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 6N20W 3N37W 6N50W 11N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF 20N95W 26N87W 30N82W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
30N81W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N90W TO 23N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N93W
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N94W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD
TO 22N102W IN MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY A THIN
LINE OF CLOUDS IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...

A BIG BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF 20N95W 26N87W 30N82W...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N32W 28N38W
22N55W 18N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 14N69W AND 12N75W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM 17N TO 19N...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...WEST OF HAITI FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...OVER CUBA FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE NICARAGUA
COAST. THE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 30N32W TO 26N41W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N41W TO 25N46W. ONE UPPER
LEVEL SEPARATE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF 12N70W BEYOND 17N60W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 22N48W AND 25N30W TO 30N16W.

EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EAST OF 50W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N14W
TO 31N22W 24N33W 20N42W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
29N50W AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 31N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N55W 25N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N55W 10N57W 6N58W AT
THE COAST OF GUYANA.

$$
MT




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