[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W THEN INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 25W-38W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL SW OF A LINE FROM 6N49W
TO 5S32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 15Z...THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PANAMA CITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 28N87W 22N93W TO
NEAR 18N90W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT BECOME STATIONARY
AND CONTINUES INLAND OVER MEXICO. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS UP TO 140 NM BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N. AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NE WIND 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N
OF 25N. PATCHY CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND A SFC RIDGE DOMINATE THE EASTERN
GULF...BUT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT N AND INCREASE FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF
REACHING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF...EXITING THE REGION BY SUN
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. PATCHY CLOUDS AND LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY N OF 14N. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST ISLANDS.
BRISK EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUN AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N60W.
A SECOND...BUT WEAKER SFC HIGH IS FARTHER EAST NEAR 28N49W.
EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
GEORGIA AND INTO THE W ATLC LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 31N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N40W TO 26N45W WHERE IS BECOMES
STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 24N50W 22N60W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT WITH ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION COVERS THE
EASTERN ATLC. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW ADVECTS UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM SOUTH
AMERICA TO THE NW COAST OF AFRICA.


$$
WADDINGTON




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