[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N9W TO 4N13W 3N22W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 26W...TO 4S32W THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST
OF 10W...SOUTH OF 7N11W 5N23W 12N53W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 50W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LLANO ESTACADO OF TEXAS
NEAR 33N102W NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W
AND TO 24N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER INTERIOR
MEXICO TO 25N100W AND 30N102W. THE COLD FRONT AT 12/0300 UTC IS
SEEN AS A SEPARATE CLOUD LINE ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.
A BIG BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SNUCK INTO
THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N43W 25N55W 20N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N73W AND 14N77W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
NEAR 18N/19N TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA...AND TO THE WATERS JUST OFF WESTERN JAMAICA.
MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA CUBA COAST
BETWEEN 76W AND 82W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N TO 23N
BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W IN CARIBBEAN SEA TRADEWIND FLOW.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N39W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 29N39W.
A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 29N39W TO 26N36W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N40W 24N47W 27N52W. A STATIONARY CURVES
FROM 27N52W TO 27N56W AND 24N60W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THIS FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N64W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N50W 31N64W 29N77W TO 29N88W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N40W 25N32W...THROUGH 32N23W
TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N20W.

$$
MT



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