[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N19W 1N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
AND MOST OF GULF W OF 86W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
AN UPPER LOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W THEN CONTINUES
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N80W TO 25N84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 86W THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH LOW CLOUDS
BANKING IN THE W GULF W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF BUT A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BUT
DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INLAND AND WITHIN 45
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA FROM 82W-84W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 16N FROM 63W-74W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 76W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N70W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N74W CONTINUING
S TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W WHERE A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 77W TO THE
SE COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 55W AND A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
25N60W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN
15W-40W WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N17W ALONG 23N24W TO
21N45W AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...REINFORCING SURGE EXTENDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N20W ALONG 29N30W THEN NW TO BEYOND
32N42W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A
1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 18N23W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE TROPICS.

$$
WALLACE




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