[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
3S40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE PRIME MERIDIAN FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 5E-3W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 16W-19W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
ALABAMA NEAR 29N88W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG 26N90W 20N96W 21N100W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA
FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 83W-89W.  NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE BEING DETECTED IN THIS AREA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 85W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT.  THE WRN EXTENT OF A RIDGE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N AND E OF
90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS ALONG 30N82W 22N97W.  CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGEST E OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA .

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH
AND THE 1009 MB LOW OVER INLAND N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONGER
THAN AVERAGE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
89W-90W...AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 77W-79W.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
28N BETWEEN 80W-82W DUE TO PRE FRONTAL ACTIVITY.  A 1029 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N52W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N26W
26N30W 23N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. IN THE
TROPICS ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W
AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA





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