[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N20W
1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO 7N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SHOWERS THAT WERE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER
THREE TO FOUR HOURS AGO AND NOW WHOSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND
20W...FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF 8N BETWEEN 10W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS WEST OF 100W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT IS FOR IT TO EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST. THE
48-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE FRONT IS TO BE DISSIPATING FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TO THE CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 30N93W
28N94W 26N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND IN FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO 29N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BEYOND 20N60W...STAYING SOUTH OF 25N NEAR 53W...AND IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD BEYOND 25N25W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N75W CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST OF
CUBA THAN TO GREAT INAGUA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N75W
CYCLONIC CENTER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 77W TO 83W IN CUBA
AND JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE WATER. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
14N58W 15N70W...ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND THEN HAVE BEEN WEAKENING COMPARATIVELY-SPEAKING
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 46W WITH A 22N67W BEYOND 32N65W RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 86W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 34N34W TO 31N31W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N45W 29N52W BEYOND 31N62W.
A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE AZORES TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN
EAST-WEST RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 10N FROM THE AFRICA COAST
TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST.

$$
MT




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