[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040456
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N8W 4N23W 3N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 2S45W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N13W TO 7N21W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-30W AND FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING OVER
MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO 86W AND INTO THE SE US. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF S
OF A FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINS
INLAND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 23N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 86W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING OFF W CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL EXIT THE TEXAS COAST LATE
TODAY INTO SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN 72W-86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N86W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND W
NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-88W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE REGION EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB LOW ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W
OF 78W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC
JUST S OF THE AZORES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N
OF 20N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 37W. THE WEAKENING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W EXTENDING S
TO 24N22W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE W EXTENDING FROM 31N22W THROUGH A SMALL 1015 MB LOW NEAR
23N32W TO 21N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 20N FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLACE




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