[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 282024
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. THERE ARE PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING DISRUPTED. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SHOWS INCREASING WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE...
ALTHOUGH SMALL...TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES FURTHER.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE
BEYOND THREE DAYS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE EXCEPT BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 14.0N  27.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.4N  27.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N  29.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.5N  30.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N  32.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.5N  34.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N  35.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1800Z 22.5N  36.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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