[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 281443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE CYCLONE HAS DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. A SHIP LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED 29 KNOTS. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE THE SHEAR IS
LOW.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A RATHER STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT MAKES THE DEPRESSION A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MORE
INFORMATION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AFTER THE 12Z RUN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1500Z 14.1N  26.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N  27.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N  28.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N  30.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N  31.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N  34.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  36.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N  36.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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