[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF CONTINUED WEAKENING
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AT 28/0900 UTC KAREN WAS
NEAR 14.1N 49.8W OR ABOUT 755 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  STRONG SWLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A BAND
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 97.5W AT 28/0900
UTC OR 30 MILES...45 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MOVING WEST AT 6 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995
MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.  SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  LORENZO MADE LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TUXPAN.  LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND 30-40 NM FROM THE
CENTER.  MEXICAN RADAR FROM ALVARADO SHOWS CONVECTION INLAND TO
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 20W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS WITH
A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE.  A 1011 MB LOW HAS SEPARATED FROM THE
WAVE AND IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 23W-27W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ON
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING
W NEAR 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
70W-75W.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 14N25W 9N35W 13N50W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE WITH T.S. KAREN AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-12W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
58W-60W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO HAS MADE LANDFALL.  SEE ABOVE.  THE SLOW
MOTION OF LORENZO WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG ITS
PATH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER LORENZO WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO N FLORIDA.  DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE N GULF.  BESIDES FOR LORENZO IN THE FAR SW GULF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOSTLY DUE TO LORENZO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF E CUBA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 74W-78W.  TRADE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE BASIN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N83W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N73W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W-80W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
LOW FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 70W-76W.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N56W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N56W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE TROPICS NEAR 11N35W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N
BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA







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