[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 242038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THEREFORE WE NEED TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12
HOURS OR SO.

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/20.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE THAT IS APPROACHING 50W.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 41.8N  42.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 45.5N  38.7W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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