[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 241500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS NOW DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM BELOW STORM
STRENGTH.  THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SO IT IS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER JERRY IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT
ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ANY EVENT
JERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  THE STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...SO AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/1500Z 39.5N  44.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 42.7N  41.2W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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