[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 240232
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM.  BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/07. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT JERRY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE ABSORPTION SINCE JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  IF
JERRY IS UNABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION...IT COULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 37.4N  46.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 39.5N  44.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 43.6N  40.7W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/1200Z..ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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